By Tim Huether Growing up in the middle of nowhere with very little access to any type of media to tell us what weather was coming was as simple as looking out the windows on both sides of the house.
We had limited television, three channels, and to get all three involved moving the antenna, which was on the roof of the house. Unfortunately I’m not making that up.
There was a low sloped roof on the side of our house that covered the stairs to the basement so it was fairly easy to get on the roof.
Our best weather forecaster was my grandpa who lived on the ranch with us. He was always telling me when the first snow or storm was coming or the first rain in the spring or last snow of the spring.
It was all about the fog for some of it. I don’t remember exactly how many days after the fog all these things would come, but he swore it was accurate. He had a barometer and was always saying something like, the barometer is dropping so the weather is going to turn for the worse.
On a barometer, the lower the needle goes (and therefore the lower the air pressure), the worse the weather will be: rain, cold, gloom, clouds, etc. And the higher the needle goes (the higher the air pressure), the milder the temperature.
I never put much stock in all that back then, mainly because when I was a kid, I really didn’t care when it rained or snowed. We lived 18 miles from the town of Wall and had to drive through the Badlands to get there, so if it snowed and blowed, it meant a snow day for me and since I really didn’t like school that much, let it snow.
Forecasting the weather has come a long way and is pretty accurate in the short term and fairly accurate long term.
So what are some of the old farmer and rancher weather guides they swore by?
There’s the 90 day rule/ theory. If you have a foggy morning, 90 days from that day you can expect snow and/or thunderstorms in the forecast, depending on the time of year.
Even though grandpa swore it happened almost every year, data from over 2000 weather dates going back to 1963 and their results show the 90 day rule is not reliable.
More weather myths and wives’ tales: -If crows fly low, winds going to blow; If crows fly high, winds going to die. Whether it’s cold or whether it’s hot; We shall have weather, whether or not! No weather is ill, if the wind is still.
-Red sky at night, sailor’s delight. Red sky at morning, sailor’s warning.
This famous saying originates from the days of sailing and shepherding. A “red sky at night” would be to the west — a clearly visible sunset. This red sky might indicate dry air and clear skies. Such conditions typically accompany high pressure, and — with weather systems in mid latitudes tending to move from west to east — a continuation of fair weather. A “red sky at morning,” however, could imply that a protective high was moving away, allowing deteriorating weather to move in. There is some truth to this piece of lore, but it only works where weather moves from west to east.
-If the groundhog sees his shadow, there will be six more weeks of winter.
This has been shown to be accurate 39 percent of the time.
-How can you accurately predict if it’s going to rain? Just check a cow pasture. If all the cows are lying down, a rainstorm is coming. Not proven to be accurate, but sounds interesting.
-If March comes in like a lion, it will go out like a lamb.
This is a questionable forecast scheme. A warm start to March can be followed by colder weather, since there’s still cold air to the north. But while weather patterns do typically change over a period of 30 days, they can easily change back again.
-Ring around the sun or moon, rain or snow soon.
It turns out these rings of light may be a reliable — but not foolproof — predictor of rain. That’s because the thin cirrus clouds that allow us to see these halos often precede a storm -Little snow - big snow. Big snow - little snow, meaning if the snow flakes are small, you’ll get more accumulation, but if the flakes are big, not much will fall. It’s generally accurate.
-Lightning never strikes the same place twice.
This is one of the most widely believed weather myths. Lightning can strike the same spot more than once, especially if the object struck is tall, pointed, and isolated. The Empire State Building, is struck by lightning more than 100 times per year.
-Cold air makes you sick. This one’s only partially true. Viruses, not weather, cause colds. However, chilly days might make us more susceptible to nasty winter bugs if we’re exposed to them. Though we’re bundled up, our faces are still typically exposed to harsh weather. When our noses are cold, blood vessels constrict and our immune response is repressed, which may allow the virus to take root.
-Thunderstorms and tornadoes always move from west to east.
More often than not, thunderstorms move from west to east. Conditions in the atmosphere dictate how and where storms will move, and it can be in any direction. Tornadoes have been known to act erratic, and can change directions and speed very quickly.
Some wisdom from the farm: -If chickens stay out in the rain instead of running for shelter the rain will be short lived. However, if the chickens run for cover, it will be a long-lasting rain -Thunder in January means a late spring -A wind from the south has rain in it’s mouth -Rain before seven, clear by eleven -Clear moon, frost soon -Rainbow at noon, more rain soon -When a rooster crows at night there will be rain by morning -When the wind blows from the west, fish bite best. When it blows from the east, fish bite least -Birds on a telephone wire predict the coming of rain -If the goose honks high, fair weather; if the goose honks low, foul weather -When a cow endeavors to scratch his ear, it means a rain shower is very near. When she thumps her ribs with an angry tail, look out for thunder, lightning and hail -Horses run fast before a violent storm or before windy conditions.
As much as today’s weather specialists can get close to predicting what is to come, one thing most of us can agree on, the weather is basically unpredictable when it comes right down to it.
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“Be yourself; everyone else is already taken.”
– Oscar Wilde
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“Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe.”
– Albert Einstein ~~~ “Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don’t matter, and those who matter don’t mind.”
– Bernard M. Baruch ~~~
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– Dr. Seuss
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